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Liang Zhonghua of Haitong Securities: The general direction of "positive" macro policy in 2025 has been determined, and the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee held a meeting on December 9 to analyze and study the economic work in 2025. Liang Zhonghua, chief macro analyst of Haitong Securities, said that judging from the statement of the meeting, the general direction of "positive" macro policy in 2025 is certain. Among them, "supernormal countercyclical adjustment" was put forward for the first time. Liang Zhonghua analyzed that "supernormal adjustment" may be different from QE (quantitative easing) in western countries, but refers to a traditional tool that has grown steadily in the past few years, making a breakthrough on the margin and playing the role of "keeping innovation" and "enriching and perfecting the policy toolbox". Judging from the policies that have been issued since September, this round of steady growth is a steady growth under the framework of "high quality". The high-quality framework will not change, and there will be no strong stimulation of flood irrigation. The meeting proposed to "implement a more active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy". Liang Zhonghua believes that next year's finance is expected to make further marginal efforts. It is expected that deficit ratio may improve. At present, 3.5%-4.0% is more likely, and the scale of special bonds may be marginally increased. Special government bonds supporting "duality" and "two innovations" will continue to be issued or increased. In addition, the debt-melting policy launched in November will also be the financial focus next year, and it is expected that special government bonds may be issued to supplement bank capital. In addition, the gradual interest rate cut will continue next year, and the structural monetary policy will continue to exert its strength. The meeting stressed that "it is necessary to vigorously boost consumption, improve investment efficiency, and expand domestic demand in all directions." In this regard, Liang Zhonghua believes that compared with Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party's statement of "expanding domestic demand with the focus on boosting consumption" in July, this meeting pays more attention to expanding domestic demand, and its support is expected to be further increased in the future. Since the beginning of this year, with the extra-long special national debt funds in place, the consumption of consumer goods trade-in policy has gradually emerged. There is still room for further efforts to expand domestic demand policies such as replacing old consumer goods with new ones next year. Liang Zhonghua also mentioned that this meeting clearly put forward "stabilizing the property market and stock market", which shows that the policy pays high attention to the property market and stock market. As an important signal to pay attention to the economy and expectations, the policies of the property market and stock market are also positive.General Administration of Customs: Import and export of general trade and processing trade increased. According to customs statistics, in the first 11 months, China's general trade import and export was 25.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.7%, accounting for 64.1% of China's total foreign trade. Among them, the export was 15.04 trillion yuan, up by 7.9%; Imports reached 10.46 trillion yuan, down 1.8%. In the same period, the import and export of processing trade was 7.22 trillion yuan, up by 3.6%, accounting for 18.1%. Among them, exports were 4.58 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.8%; Imports reached 2.64 trillion yuan, up 6.9%. In addition, China's import and export by bonded logistics was 5.64 trillion yuan, an increase of 13%. Among them, exports were 2.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.9%; Imports reached 3.44 trillion yuan, up by 14.4%.Treasury bond futures rose by 1.04% for 30-year main contracts, 0.53% for 10-year main contracts, 0.32% for 5-year main contracts and 0.10% for 2-year main contracts.

General Administration of Customs: In the first 11 months, automobile exports were 762.97 billion yuan, up by 16.9%. According to the data of General Administration of Customs, in the first 11 months, China exported 13.7 trillion yuan of mechanical and electrical products, up by 8.4%, accounting for 59.5% of China's total export value. Among them, automatic data processing equipment and its parts and components were 1.33 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.4%; 1.03 trillion yuan of integrated circuits, up by 20.3%; Mobile phones reached 874.45 billion yuan, down by 0.9%; Automobile was 762.97 billion yuan, up by 16.9%. In the same period, the export of labor products was 3.84 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.2%, accounting for 16.7%. Among them, clothing and clothing accessories were 1.03 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.9%; Textiles were 915.96 billion yuan, up 6%; Plastic products reached 681.09 billion yuan, up 6.9%. The export of agricultural products was 657.34 billion yuan, up by 4.6%. (General Administration of Customs)1 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term special government bonds have been arranged! The combination of boxing has been effective. At present, the "double"+"two new" annual 1 trillion yuan ultra-long-term special national debt has all been arranged. In November, the purchasing managers' index of manufacturing industry reached 50.3%, rising for three consecutive months. The "two-fold" and "two innovations" package of incremental policies is effectively promoting the sustained and steady progress of the economy. (CCTV News)General Administration of Customs: In the first 11 months, the import and export of private enterprises was 21.99 trillion yuan, accounting for 55.3% of China's total foreign trade. According to the data of the General Administration of Customs, in the first 11 months, the import and export of private enterprises was 21.99 trillion yuan, up 8.7%, accounting for 55.3% of China's total foreign trade, up 2 percentage points over the same period last year. Among them, the export was 14.86 trillion yuan, up 9.2%, accounting for 64.5% of China's total export value; Imports amounted to 7.13 trillion yuan, up 7.9%, accounting for 42.6% of China's total import value. In the same period, the import and export of foreign-invested enterprises reached 11.67 trillion yuan, up by 1.1%, accounting for 29.3% of China's total foreign trade. Among them, exports were 6.36 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.1%; Imports reached 5.31 trillion yuan, down 0.1%. The import and export of state-owned enterprises was 6.04 trillion yuan, down 0.7%, accounting for 15.2% of China's total foreign trade. Among them, the export was 1.79 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.9%; Imports were 4.25 trillion yuan, down 2.5%. (General Administration of Customs)

Treasury bond futures rose by 1.04% for 30-year main contracts, 0.53% for 10-year main contracts, 0.32% for 5-year main contracts and 0.10% for 2-year main contracts.The diet pills sector strengthened locally, with Changshan Pharmaceutical rising by over 13%, followed by Hanyu Pharmaceutical, Shengnuo Bio, Hongyuan Pharmaceutical and Borui Pharmaceutical.Shibor reported 1.4700% overnight, down 4.6 basis points; In 7 days, shibor reported 1.7840%, up 4.8 basis points; In three months, shibor reported 1.7480%, down 0.5 basis point.